METEOROLOGY: FROM THE SUMERIANS TO ARISTOTLE - HISTORY OF A FORGOTTEN DISCIPLINE

 

An image of Miletus, now in Turkiye

Dating back to around 340 BC, Meteorology (Meteorologica in Latin) is a treatise written by the famous Greek philosopher Aristotle (384-322 BC). The work, composed of four volumes, is one of the oldest complete texts on atmospheric science in the entire Western civilization. Meteorology, which until the 17th century was one of the main texts on the subject that studies and observes the Earth's atmosphere and its variations, does not only contain mere theoretical and practical principles on the subject that concerns the common properties of water and air and their phenomena, but accumulates, under the pen of the Greek thinker, decisive discoveries of classical poets, philosophers and historians. Aristotle, introducing the arguments presented by other pre-Socratic Greek scholars, such as Anaxagoras (496-428 BC), Empedocles (494-434 BC) and others, shapes his own statements by questioning and methodically refuting the theories developed by them. The theories mainly outlined by the Greek philosopher in the work are essentially two:

-The Universe is spherical, so: the internal core of the Earth is composed of the orbits of celestial bodies. The Universe is divided into two regions: the celestial region (the region beyond the lunar orbit) and the terrestrial-sphere region (the tendency of the Moon to orbit around the Earth).
-The Theory of the four elements, so: the terrestrial region is composed of four elements: water, earth, fire and air. The latter are arranged in spherical layers, with the Earth at the center and the Moon at the periphery of the sphere. The elements are in continuous exchange with each other, so for example: the heat of the Sun colliding with water, creates air and fog.

The work, in addition to configuring meteorological phenomena and natural processes, also includes, beyond its generalist title, concepts of physics, science, geology, geography and hydrology, to the point of conceiving and describing, as we have mentioned, the four elements. According to the author, the four elements, influenced by heat and cold, are factors actively responsible for the generation or destruction of life itself, and are decisive in influencing matter, its states and its properties. To date, as with other sciences, establishing the exact birth of meteorology is uncertain. However, we know that as a field of knowledge – which we now define as a scientific discipline – meteorology has very remote origins in the history of human civilization. As early as 3500 BC, the ancient Egyptians had religious practices related to the sky, in the form of rituals to invoke rain; since all ancient religions believed that atmospheric processes were under the control of the gods. At most, the Babylonian civilization, which developed around the Tigris and Euphrates rivers between 3000 and 300 BC, used clay tablets in the absence of plants suitable for producing paper. From these tablets, which are now proven to be an ancient and deducible form of transmission of knowledge and the dynamics of life and thought of the ancient civilization that has disappeared, it can be deduced that meteorology was an important part of this culture. The Babylonians, in order to associate atmospheric phenomena with the movement of celestial bodies, were the first to introduce a new discipline: astrometeorology. This essentially attempted to predict the weather using astrology. For the ancients, the position and motion of celestial objects could be used to predict both weather conditions and seasonal climate.
Astrometeorology, now considered by most to be a pseudoscience, was in reality for much of ancient history an academic tradition handed down for centuries and often in close relation to deeper astronomy, astrology, alchemy and medicine. As today, in ancient times human existence was controlled by the weather and its effects. The latter, as one might imagine, were particularly significant in pre-modern agricultural societies such as ancient Mesopotamia. According to cuneiform sources, divine action in the realm of weather was personified in the deity Adad; an ambivalent character who on the one hand supported life by providing water and favorable conditions, while on the other he destroyed it through floods, storms and droughts. This is exemplified in the Babylonian myth of Atrahasis, which tells how Adad caused the flood that almost exterminated all life on Earth. In some obvious clay tablets, the subject of careful study, a prediction based on planetary and lunar periods is cited:

[If] you want to make a prediction [for …rain and] high water: […]month II. For the Great Star (Jupiter) 1.12 (= 72), 24, 12 years, [for Dilbat (Venus)] 16, 8 years, for Šiḫṭu (Mercury) 46, 21, 13 years, [for Kayyāmānu (Saturn)…, for Ṣalbatānu (Mars)] 47 years, for Šamaš (sun) 36, 54 years, for Sin (moon) 18 years (AO 6488 rev. 1–4). To calculate ("make") rain and high water: 1.12 for Sagmegar (Jupiter), 64, secondly 16 for Dilbat, 46, secondly 13 for Šiḫṭu, 59 for Kayyāmānu, 1.19 (= 79), secondly 47 for Ṣalbatānu.

As is known in late Babylonian astral science, the planets are indicated as potentially benefic (Jupiter, Venus) or malefic (Saturn, Mars). In another tablet, the zodiac signs are explicitly mentioned, all of which appear in significant configurations, which, associated with specific planets, are linked to meteorological phenomena.

For rain and high water: in Pisces, the Great One (Aquarius) and the Stars (Taurus). For the rise of the wind: in Gemini, Pabilsag (Sagittarius), the Crab, the Lion, the Swallow (Western Pisces), Anunītu (part of Pisces), the Stars and the Mercenary Man (Aries). For the rising of a storm (me-ḫe-[e]), destruction by Adad, destruction (ri-iḫ-ṣu): in the Stars and the Mercenary.

A similar scenario can also be found in another Seleucid tablet from Uruk, which illustrates a procedure of celestial observation in relation to trade, with the aim of predicting the market price of barley:

If you want to make a prediction for the region of the market price of barley: you investigate the course of the planets and observe the (first) appearance, the last appearance, the station, the "balance", the approach, the weakness and brightness of the planets and the zodiacal sign in which they begin to rise and fall, and then you make a prediction for your year, and it will be correct.

Another attestation in late Babylonian meteorological compositions, which we know involved the use of astrometeorology, was intended to anticipate and monitor the level of the Euphrates River, called "high water" (mīlu) in the diaries. In this regard, we know that in 350 BC, the change in the river level was reported among celestial phenomena whenever it stopped rising, falling or remaining constant; which usually happened several times a month. However, a more convincing indication presumed a close connection between the river level and meteorological phenomena; a connection regarding eclipses, which sometimes triggered the almost daily detection of the river level. A primordial example of this can be found in a diary of the month X of King Artaxerxes III of Persia (425-338 BC), year 12, which reports a lunar eclipse on the 13th and an omitted solar eclipse on the 28th:

On the 28th, eclipse of Šamaš that passed. Night of the 29th, last part of the night, lightning, strong thunder,… rain PISAN DIB (= phenomenon related to rain). On the 29th, in the morning, lightning, strong thunder, little rain PISAN DIB. Above Babylon and below Babylon it rained heavily […]. (…) [In that month from … to] the 14th, the level of the river rose 8 fingers; from the 15th to the 19th the level of the river fell 8 fingers; on the 22nd the level of the river rose 4 fingers; from the 23rd to [the 26th? did the level of the river fall? …;] on the 27th, 28th and 29th the level of the river rose 1/2 cubit.

Dozens more such examples are again attested between 322 and 88 B.C.E. The significant innovation introduced by the Babylonians, mentioned earlier, was the incorporation of the zodiac as a new spatial framework for describing and deducing predictions of planetary and lunar configurations. Today’s twelve-sign zodiac actually developed in a downward direction in the Babylonian period from the eighteen constellations originally conceived in the Sumerian zodiac. The ancients, who viewed stars, constellations and planets as endowed with spirit and divinity, made astronomy and astrology – considered the same until relatively recently – two of the most sacred sciences; a sophisticated system that intertwined daily life, religion and culture. The Sumerians were the first to observe, chart and record in detail the movements of the Moon, Sun and stars, while the Babylonians were the first to complete the codifications of astronomical observation.
One of the most complete Babylonian compilations on the subject, known as Enuma Anu Enlil, consisting of 70 astrological tablets, which include 6,500 to 7,000 specific astrological predictions, was intended to predict the state of the king and the nation. Despite this and contrary to popular belief, natal and predictive astrology was well practiced even among the common people. The text that does, however, contain one of the most significant star lists in Babylonian astrology, is a document known as MUL.APIN (translated as the “Plough Star/Constellation”), which is believed to have been compiled in its canonical form around 1000 BC. In this very text, 71 stars and constellations with their times are contained; stars that are listed with an associated deity and that follow the path of the Moon. Eighteen of these associated constellations, later twelve, were the ones that defined the zodiac system, which later spread to Egypt, Greece, and India. The Babylonian zodiac, whose signs are aligned with the lunar months and solar year and correspond to specific celestial phenomena, served as a bridge between heaven and earthly affairs. Integration with mythology, as we have mentioned, was the distinctive feature that innovatively played a vital role in every aspect of Babylonian life. Below is an overview of each sign:

-Aries (Gishimmu) – Symbolized by the ram: Associated with leadership, courage and assertiveness.
-Taurus (Gud) – Represented by the bull: This sign embodies strength, determination and love of comfort.
-Gemini (MUL.GU4) – The twins symbolize duality, communication and adaptability.
-Cancer (Kislimu) – The crab symbolizes sensitivity, care and emotional depth.
-Leo (MUL.BAR) – Represented by the lion: Embodies pride, creativity and desire for recognition.
-Virgo (MUL.SIG) – The maiden symbolizes purity, attention to detail and analytical thinking.
-Libra (MUL.ZIB) – Represented by the scales: Embodies balance, harmony and correctness.
-Scorpio (MUL.SAR) – The scorpion symbolizes intensity, transformation and passion.
-Sagittarius (MUL.SHI) – Represented by the archer; embodies exploration, adventure and the pursuit of knowledge.
-Capricorn (MUL.DU) – The goat symbolizes ambition, discipline and practicality.
-Aquarius (MUL.ZA) – Represented by the water bearer; embodies innovation, humanitarianism and independence.
-Pisces (MUL.UTU) – Pisces symbolizes intuition, empathy and artistic expression.

In addition, the Babylonians studied the formation of clouds, the movement of winds and the behavior of animals. In succession, the ancient Egyptians, who lived in the Nile Valley, developed a strong connection with nature. It is known that the Egyptians patented a sophisticated irrigation system to manage the floods of the Nile, and were acutely aware of the impact of the climate on their crops. In addition, they also observed wildlife, including bird migrations and the behavior of snakes, which they believed could predict the onset of the rainy season. A revolutionary discovery from the last century, which still stands as one of the earliest meteorological records in ancient Egyptian history, is known as the Storm Stele.
Found in the third pylon of the Karnak temple in Thebes, now Luxor, the Storm Stele is a 1.8-meter-high block of calcite, inscribed with about 40 lines of unusual weather patterns that some researchers believe are consistent with a visual account of the massive volcanic eruption of Thera (Santorini) in 1600 BC. The Stele is said to have been erected by King Ahmose I, who is believed to have reigned from 1550 BC, marking the beginning of the New Kingdom; a period when Egypt’s power was at its height. The inscribed artefact, found in fragments between 1947 and 1951 by French archaeologists, was only recently translated in 2014. The stele graphically describes how: “The discontent of the gods brought the sky with a storm, which caused darkness in the western region” whose “stormy sky without rest, was louder than the cries of the masses”, and carried out the destruction of tombs, temples and pyramids in the region of Thebes. The passages, which provide the world’s oldest weather report, also describe how: “every house, every shelter and the corpses floated down the Nile like papyrus boats for days, without anyone being able to light a torch anywhere”. Although the part describing the storm is the most damaged, the Stele reports how, following this devastating cataclysm, “the people, in the east and in the west, were silent, for they had no clothes on them,” until “His Majesty – that is, King Ahmose I – went down in his boat followed by his council and came to Thebes, and set about to strengthen the Two Lands [Upper and Lower Egypt], and to drain away the water, providing silver, gold, copper, oil, clothing, and all the desired products.” The final lines of the Stele relate how, after the storm, the king was informed that “the burial chambers had been damaged, the structures of the funerary enclosures had been undermined and the pyramids had collapsed, and everything that existed had been annihilated,” whereupon he “then ordered the repair of the fallen chapels throughout the country, the restoration of the monuments of the gods, the rebuilding of their enclosures, the rebuilding of the fire altars and the repositioning of the offering tables in an upright position.” These orders were carried out, “as His Majesty had ordered.” A detailed account of a cataclysmic event without precedent or equal.

Let us now finally see how meteorology, its effects and its importance were conceived in Ancient Greece, where Aristotle lived. As in Rome, in Greece the weather was a subject of discussion among the people. As we have already mentioned and as the reader will soon read, the ancient pre-Socratic natural philosophers had much to say about meteorological phenomena and were interested in understanding their causes. The very word from which the term “meteorology” derives comes from the Greek “meteora” and refers to elevated things; to things that are found high up.

As we might mistakenly think, the study of meteorology for the ancient Greeks did not only include what today we would define as atmospheric phenomena (such as snow, rain, hail and wind) but also some phenomena that we would still define as astronomical (such as comets, but also geological or seismological events). Just think, if we turn to the very first Greek texts, the Homeric and Hesiodic poems, in which much is said about the weather; but also to unwritten but artistic testimonies, such as Greek vases and sometimes statues depicting the gods (see Zeus hurling a thunderbolt). In an early work by Hesiod (8th-7th century BC), known as Works and Days, we find something that seems like a very synthetic version of a meteorological calendar or a farmer's almanac, which provides an indication of what we should do and when; since meteorological phenomena – but also the fates of mortals – do not simply manifest themselves, but the gods, supremely, have control over them. This, in the Greek vision, was essential. In the farmer's almanac contained in the poem, Hesiod, over three thousand years ago, wrote an indispensable guide to the practices of ancient agriculture, and gave practical advice on sowing, harvesting, the type of wood to use for the plow and the management of farm laborers. In more detailed sections, the author indicates the most propitious days to carry out certain tasks based on the weather and astronomy; for example, he reports:

When the Pleiades, daughters of Atlas, rise, begin the harvest and plow again when they set. [383-4]

Furthermore, according to Hesiod, some days of the month were held sacred to the gods, and other days were preferable for performing specific tasks:

The eleventh day, and also the twelfth, are both very good days, both for shearing sheep and for reaping good harvests; but of these the twelfth day is far better than the eleventh. [774-6]

Despite this, it is interesting to reflect on how the approach of Greek naturalist philosophers towards these phenomena offered rational and intrinsic explanations, in a certain sense removing them from the mere will of the gods. Proof of this can be found if we examine another Greek testimony: Epicurus' Letter to Pythocles (341-270 BC), in which the author discusses meteorological phenomena at length, clarifying how one can have a rational understanding of the weather, without necessarily giving credit to the gods, as they are too busy to worry about something so trivial. Epicurus suggests that we should not worry about these things, because they just happen, naturally:

We should not conduct scientific research based on empty assumptions and arbitrary principles, but follow the guidance of phenomena: our life, in fact, no longer has room for irrational beliefs and unfounded imaginations, but we must live without disturbances. [87]

Equally interested, the Greeks and Romans were not always engrossed in explaining the weather, but only in predicting it in the near future; in fact, it should not surprise us that agronomists and farmers made use of astrometeorological calendars. For example, Pliny the Elder (23-79 BC), author of the Naturalis Historia, reports that some merchants used weather forecasts to help them set the prices of cloaks they would sell, so that if a harsh winter was forecast, they knew they could increase the price of their cloaks and earn more. As a work written for the “humili vulgo”, that is, the common public and farmers, Naturalis Historia continues to be an exhaustive compendium on the subject today. Moreover, the importance of understanding aspects of ancient climate, its phenomena and local conditions in relation to astronomical events such as the rising and setting of certain stars, as well as the solstices and equinoxes, was essential to farmers around the Mediterranean. In fact, as Pliny himself states, citing a long tradition of astrometeorological texts, “The right times for sowing depend to a very great extent on the stars”; therefore the farmer is encouraged to look for terrestrial signs and to carry out his own observations, rather than relying exclusively on astronomy. For example, rather than providing calendar dates, Pliny advocates the observation of phenological phenomena, that is, those seasonal manifestations in plant life in relation to climatic factors (flowering, leaf fall, etc.), as he himself cites:

The changing of the leaves of the olive tree, the white poplar and the willow marks the summer solstice, the flowering of the mint (pulieio) the winter solstice.

Contrary to certain celestial signals recommended for example by Xenophon (4th century) and Cicero (106-43 BC), Pliny informs the reader that the true method to adopt for sowing is not to bury before the leaves begin to fall, urging to judge the celestial dates based on their effects, since: "the best fertilizer is the master's eye"; without expecting the timing of the change of seasons to be necessarily exact or consistent, as he reports:

That farmer inexperienced in astronomy can find this sign [for sowing] among his brambles, looking at his land: when he has seen the leaves fall. In this way he can estimate the weather of the year, [since they fall] first in one place, later in another…

Furthermore, Pliny, unlike Varro (116-27 BC), Virgil (70-19 BC) and Columella (4-70 BC) – who wrote for the owners of large estates – addresses humble landowners by consciously promoting responsible behavior in the environmental field, directly citing an episode:

In the territory of Syracuse, an immigrant farmer lost his crops because of the mud after having cleaned the ground of stones, until he put them back in their place.

At most, according to Pliny, man's intervention in the natural course of things changes the climate:

Do we not find that [the land] valued over a long period often changes? In Thessaly, near Larissa, after the lake was drained, the area became much colder, and the olive trees that once stood there disappeared, and the vines likewise were struck by frost, which had never happened before...and near Philippi, after the land was drained for cultivation, the nature of the climate changed.

Once again, in Ancient Greece, we find the contribution of another light of wisdom: Thales of Miletus. A renowned scholar known as one of the legendary Seven Sages of antiquity, as well as the founder of the School of Natural Philosophy, Thales, in addition to being remembered primarily for his cosmological theory based on water as the essence of all matter on Earth, was also sufficiently involved in questions concerning mathematics, astronomy, cosmology, geography, politics and other forms of science and philosophy. Although very little specific information is known about his ideas and discoveries, his brilliant reputation has survived thanks to the enormous influence he had on the philosophers, scholars and scientists who followed him, one of whom, if not the most famous, was the illustrious Aristotle, who recorded numerous tales of the Ionian philosopher. In addition to recording how Thales undertook his studies for the pleasure of learning rather than the mere desire to profit from his discoveries, Aristotle informs us how the natural philosopher, the victim of offensive comments from his neighbors in the bustling port city of Miletus – who claimed that he could not live off his philosophical studies – instead managed, thanks to his iron-clad learning, to become rapidly rich in retaliation for such slanderers. Aristotle states:

The story goes like this: People had reproached him that philosophy was useless, since it had left him poor. But he, deducing from his knowledge of the stars that there would be a good olive harvest, while it was still winter and he had some money saved, used it to pay deposits for all the olive presses in Miletus and Chios, thus securing the rental. This cost him only a small sum, since there were no other bidders. Then came the time of the olive harvest, and since there was a sudden and simultaneous demand for olive presses, he rented them at whatever price he pleased to ask. He made a lot of money, thus proving that it is easy for philosophers to become rich, if they wish; but that is not their aim in life. This is the story of how Thales showed his intelligence.

In another related matter, Aristotle relates an episode in which Thales used his astronomical knowledge to predict that one year there would be a particularly good grape harvest; for which he bought all the presses and then rented them to people who had not expected an equally good harvest. In this testimony we find, once again, a further account – if not one of the first for profit – in which weather forecasts were used in a very practical way. Furthermore, further ancient notes attribute to Thales some written treatises and as many records, such as – reported by Calimachus – the wise advice that the navigators of Miletus should sail according to the constellation Ursa Minor (since, according to Calimachus, he was the discoverer), or, according to Diogenes as he was: “the first to study astronomy, to predict solar eclipses (the most important one occurred on May 28, 585 BC) and to fix the solstices”. It is said that he was so involved in his many-sided studies that one day, during an observation, he fell into a well. 

Today, it is widely accepted that Thales acquired information from Near Eastern sources and had access to the vast documentation dating back to the time of King Nabonassar (8th century BC), such that ancient letters show that the Babylonians and Assyrians knew that lunar eclipses can only occur during the full moon and solar eclipses only during the new moon, and that in general they are phenomena that occur at intervals of five or six months. As Philostratus states: “Thales observed the celestial bodies from Mount Mycale, which was near his home.” In addition to further discoveries and achievements, such as measuring the height of the pyramids of Giza based on the shadow they cast, Thales is known to have acquired the rudiments of geometry in Egypt, which he later introduced to Greece; for, just as Plato maintained, the Greeks took from foreigners what was valuable and developed their notions into better ideas. His possible journey to Egypt – as argued by one of Aristotle’s students, namely Eudemus – could be supported by the fact that the wealth of Miletus was the brilliant result of its success as a commercial center, and it would not have been difficult to find a passage on one of the numerous ships that traded there. Returning briefly to Thales's well-known discoveries, it was Josephus himself who suggested that Thales visited the Babylonians and Chaldeans and had access to the astrological records that allowed him to predict the solar eclipse of 585 BC, since, historically, Miletus had founded many colonies around the Mediterranean and particularly along the coast of the Black Sea. It is likely that Thales, one of the "great teachers" as Herodotus called him, visited Croesus (596-546 BC) in the capital Lydia, and from there joined a caravan to make the three-month journey with the aim of visiting the observatories of Babylon and researching the astronomical knowledge accumulated over centuries of observing celestial phenomena. Today, the legacy of Thales teaches us to know and give pragmatic explanations to natural phenomena, and, absolutely, to seek knowledge as an end in itself, since: "Nothing is more active than thought, since it travels in the universe ..."

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